Crime during the Covid-19 Crisis: A Global Analysis

Cities included in the Global Covid Crime Study

Research Questions

The emergency measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic constitute a unique set of interventions that deeply affect daily routines of people in all societies across the globe. Evidence is emerging that crime levels fell substantially for many types of crime in many societies during the crisis. However, it is currently unclear:

Whether the extent and the pattern of decline were similar across societies with different social and economic conditions.
Whether there is systematic variation in what types of crime declined and the extent to which the decline is associated with characteristics of the regimes imposed on populations during the pandemic (e.g. complete lockdown, partial curfews, prohibition or limitation of alcohol sale, behaviour tracking, etc).
As many societies are or will be on the way out of the emergency measures in the coming months, there are important questions on how crime patterns and levels will adjust.

The Study

We aim to answer the research questions by taking a global perspective. More specifically, we aim to document and analyse crime levels before, during and on the way out of the emergency regimes in a large number of cities or urban provinces/districts worldwide. We focus on large cities because they are more likely to be comparable and have up-to-date police data. We plan to examine the timing of changes in crime patterns, the differences in trends between types of crimes and the extent to which cities differ in their patterns.

Scientific and Policy Value

This unique comparative study will shed light on the similarities and differences in the ways police-recorded crime responded to the emergency measures taken by governments. It will help to better understand what lessons can be learned from pandemic experiences in many cities across the world.

Data Collection

We will be collecting police recorded crime data and data relating to the emergency regimes introduced in the analysed countries, listed in the Research Network section.

Police Recorded Crime:

Time series of daily counts of police recorded crime
Crime types will include homicide, assault, burglary, theft, motor vehicle theft, robbery, rape, total all crimes. We are aware that some data may not be available in all cities.
Series should start on 1 January 2018 and continue until the most recent date possible.

Emergency Regimes:

In collaboration with local specialists, we will generate a timeline of when emergency measures were introduced or lifted, and what aspects of behavior they subjected to controls.

Research Network

The project was initiated jointly by Prof Manuel Eisner (University of Cambridge), Dr Amy Nivette (University of Utrecht) and Prof Maria Fernanda Peres (University of São Paulo). One or two specialists in each city/country were invited to partner in the study, contribute to the data collection and co-author scientific output. Two research assistants (Marcelo Ryngelblum, University of São Paulo and Joran Veldkamp, Utrecht University) are employed to help organise the data and communicate with the specialists. We subsequently aim to organise webinars to discuss our findings internationally. This is a preliminary list and it might change as the project progresses.

Country	City	Reseacher	Institution
Argentina	Buenos Aires	Prof Diego Fleitas Prof Marcelo Bergman	Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero, Centro de Estudios Latinoamericano sobre Inseguiridad y Violencia (CELIV)
Australia	Brisbane	Prof Lorraine Mazerolle Dr Renee Zanhow	University of Queensland, School of Social Science , Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
Brazil	São Paulo	Prof Maria Fernanda Tourinho Peres Dr Roberta Astolfi	University of São Paulo, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine
Canada	Toronto, Vancouver	Data are publicly available	-
China	Macau	Prof Jianhong Liu	University of Macau, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Sociology
Colombia	Cali	Dr Alberto Concha-Eastman	Advisor on Public Health and Violence prevention at the Secretariat of Health, Cali, Colombia
England	London	Mr Ryan Davenport Mr Simon Rose	Metropolitan Police, UK
Estonia	Tallinn	Mr Andri Ahven	Adviser, Ministry of Justice, Estonia
Finland	Helsinki	Prof Tapio Lappi-Seppälä	University of Helsinki, Institute of Criminology and Legal Policy
Germany	Hannover	Prof Dirk Baier	Zurich University of Applied Sciences, School of Social Work, Institute of Delinquency and Crime Prevention
Honduras	San Pedro Sula	Dr Gustavo Bardales	Programa Municpios Más Seguros (World Bank)
Israel	Tel Aviv	Dr Barak Ariel	University of Cambridge, Institute Criminology
Italy	-	Dr Paolo Campana	University of Cambridge, Institute of Criminology
Jamaica	Kingston	Dr Elizabeth Ward	University of West Indies, Mona, The Violence Prevention Alliance
Jordan	Amman	Ms Lana Ghuneim	University of Cambridge, Institute of Criminology
Mexico	Mexico City	Prof Carlos Javier Vilalta Perdomo	Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (Conacyt)
Netherlands	Amsterdam	Dr Joris Beijers	Utrecht University,Sociology Department
New Zealand	-	Prof Gregory Breetzke	University of Pretoria, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology
Norway	Oslo	Dr Manne Gerell	Malmo University, Department of Criminology
Romania	Cluj	Dr Claudia Lenuta Rus	Babes-Bolyai University, Department of Psychology
Peru	Lima	Ms Rosa Esther Loureiro Revilla	University of Cambridge, Institute of Criminology
Philippines	Valenzuela	Prof Bernadette J. Madrid	University of the Philippines Manila/Child Protection Network Foundation
Slovenia	Ljubljana	Prof Gorazd Meško	University of Maribor, the Institute of Criminal Justice and Security, Faculty of Criminal Justice and Security
South Africa	-	Prof Gregory Breetzke	University of Pretoria, Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology
South Korea	-	Dr Hyung Min Bark	Korean Institute of Criminology
Spain	Barcelona	Prof Noemi Pereda Beltran	University of Barcelona, Faculty of Psychology
Sweden	Malmo/Stockholm	Professor Robert Svensson Dr Manne Gerell	Malmo University, Department of Criminology
Switzerland	Zurich	Prof Dirk Baier	Zurich University of Applied Sciences, School of Social Work, Institute of Delinquency and Crime Prevention
Taiwan	Taipei	Professor Yung-Lien (Edward) Lai	Central Police University, Department of Crime Prevention and Corrections
Uruguay	Montevideo	Dr. Nicolas Trajtenberg Dr. Carlos Díaz	The University of Manchester Catholic University of Uruguay, Department of Social Science
USA	San Francisco, Chicago	Dr Amy Nivette	University of Utrecht

Publications & Outreach

Nivette, A.E., Zahnow, R., Aguilar, R. et al. A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nat Hum Behav (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
London teen homicides: How killings broke 2008 record, BBC News, December 2021. Manuel Eisner discusses the crime rates during the pandemic.
Feature on University of Cambridge's website: Urban crime fell by over a third around the world during COVID-19 shutdowns
Prof Eisner spoke at a WHO webinar in December 2020, read more about it here.

Study initiated and coordinated by

Violence Research Centre

About Us

Research

London Medieval Murder Map

Covid-19 Research

Evidence for Better Lives (EBLS)

EBLS Study Sites

Conferences & Webinars

Alternatives to School Exclusion Conference 2015

Global Violence Reduction Conference 2014

Publications and media coverage

WHO Global Campaign for Violence Prevention Conference 2015