Abstract
Disrupting Conflict Strings in Sub-National Contexts: Experience from Muslim Mindanao, Philippines
Global experience suggests that declines in rebellion-related conflict can lead to an intensification of transition-induced horizontal violence between clans, tribes, political elites, and criminal entrepreneurs. However, there are few robust sources of data that can test this relationship at the subnational level. The presentation offers fresh evidence of the phenomena of transition-induced violence in the particular case of subnational conflict. The author presents data gathered from police databases and media reports in the southern provinces of Muslim Mindanao where conflict has endured between Moro insurgents and the Philippine state for the past forty years. The Bangsamoro Conflict Monitoring System (BCMS) is a conflict database that traces the manifestations, triggers, actors, and costs of violent conflict in Muslim Mindanao—yielding a nuanced understanding of sources of violence and contribute to the design of conflict prevention in post-peace agreement scenarios and more broadly, towards a more resilient peace in fragile conflict-affected contexts. The author’s presentation will demonstrate the initial results of the conflict mapping system (2011-2013) and explain the phenomenon of “violent conflict strings” that morph from community-level conflict or clan feuds to rebellion and criminal violence—proving that violent conflicts cannot be examined through singular incidences but an investigation of strings of two or more incidences and an exploration of how this can effectively be disrupted. A case study on interrupting violence strings through hybrid governance processes in sub-national contexts will be showcased.